Keywords
administrative data; children; primary school; special education; birth defects; ECHILD database
Special educational needs (SEN) provision has been called a “postcode lottery” in England, but the extent to which this represents underlying inequities has not been sufficiently investigated. This study will focus on children with similar underlying health characteristics to explore sources of systematic variation in SEN provision by local authority (LA) in England.
We will use linked individual-level state-funded hospital and school records from the Education and Health Insights from Linked Data (ECHILD) database, alongside open-source school-level data. Our cohort will be defined as singleton children with major congenital anomalies born in England between 1 September 2003 and 31 August 2012. We will identify major congenital anomalies from diagnoses in hospital records in the first year of life using European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT) guidelines. LA (152 in total) will be defined by child’s residential address reported in education records at entry into year one of school (aged five years old). SEN provision will be defined by a recording of an educational health and care plan or SEN support in any census in Reception, year one or two of primary school (ages four/five to six/seven). To quantify variation in SEN provision we will fit multilevel logistic regression models to the individual records, with a-priori selected individual-, school- and LA-level characteristics. We will report the estimated intraclass correlation coefficient at each stage of the model, signifying the percentage of remaining variation in the odds of recorded SEN provision that is due to differences between LAs.
We have existing research ethics approval for analyses of the ECHILD database described in this protocol. We will disseminate our findings to diverse audiences (academics, relevant government departments, service users and providers) through seminars, peer-reviewed publications, short briefing reports and infographics for non-academics (published on the study website).
Some children need extra help with learning in school. In England, this help is called special educational needs (SEN) provision. Health and education professionals worry that provision is not fair, and there might be a “postcode lottery”. This means that access to support varies depending on where children live, rather than according to their needs. The aim of this research is to find out whether the chance of a pupil getting special educational needs provision in schools is the same across different parts of England. We will use information collected by hospitals and schools for all children who were born in England between 2003 and 2013. We will focus on children with birth defects, as these children are likely to have complex health problems and require additional support from health and education services. This means we can be more confident that these children should get special educational needs provision. We will explore whether characteristics of local areas and schools contribute to differences in provision across regions in England. The results will help us to understand how equal special educational needs provision is across England and inform policies to best support children.
administrative data; children; primary school; special education; birth defects; ECHILD database
Special educational needs (SEN) provision for children and young people across England is described as a “postcode lottery”1–3. Prominently, in their 2010 review of the special educational needs and disability framework, the Office for Standards in Education, Children’s Services and Skills (Ofsted) levelled criticism at local area variation in the appropriateness and timeliness of SEN provision4. In an attempt to address these and other perceived shortcomings of SEN provision, significant reforms to the system were introduced as part of the Children and Families Act 20145. However, statistics published by the Department of Education shows continued national variation in school recorded SEN provision; as of January 2022, the proportion of pupils recorded as receiving SEN support (provision arranged by schools offering additional support to children in the classroom) ranged from 8.2% to 17.6% and Education Health and Care Plans (EHCPs, arranged by local authorities (LAs), for children whose needs cannot be met by SEN support) from 1.7% to 5.9% across LAs6.
Understanding the reasons behind local variation in SEN provision is an important prerequisite to ensuring equity in access to support. However, to date, limited evidence has been available at the national level. Notably, the National Audit Office reports that “The Department [of Education] believes that the variation reflects local context and practice, but has not investigated the reasons.”7,p.11 Utilising educational records from children attending primary school between 2010/11 and 2016/17, the Education Policy Institute investigated the predictors of recorded SEN in England2. They found that the proportion of academised primary schools and rates of pupils eligible for free school meals was negatively associated with recorded SEN at the LA level, after adjustment for a selection of school and individual-level factors. However, without external measures of the level of need in the underlying population, previous work has been unable to fully account for pupil-level characteristics when looking at geographical variation in SEN provision.
To build on the understanding of variation in SEN provision across England, we will use linked education and health records to focus on children with major congenital anomalies (MCAs). MCAs encompass an array of structural and functional abnormalities of prenatal origin that are present at birth and are estimated to affect between 2-3% of live births in England8–10. With improvements to neonatal care and early interventions over the last few decades, children with MCAs are now more likely to survive to school age11. MCAs are associated with long term health problems and, often, learning difficulties or disabilities; hence an increased need for SEN provision12. Focussing on children with MCAs will enable us to investigate geographical variation in SEN provision amongst a population with similar needs. The aim of this study is to describe LA-level variation in school-recorded SEN provision (a proxy for receiving SEN provision) in Reception, year one and two of school amongst children with major congenital anomalies born between 1 September 2003 and 31 August 2012 in England.
This study was designed following consultations with stakeholders, including parents/carers of children who applied for SEN provision. Themes from these consultations revealed frustration at the variation in timing and support given by schools and local authorities. The HOPE study steering committee includes parents of children with disabilities who will review and advise on the presentation and dissemination of the study's findings.
Observational study using linked individual health and educational records. In a manner similar to target trial emulation studies (where study design principles of randomised trials are applied to observational data)13, we use a structured procedure to guide eligibility, entry, follow-up times and the analysis plan for this study. To do this, we describe design components of the ideal (“target”) population-based study and then emulate this using our observational data. Although our study is not intended to produce causal effects (as in cases where the target trial emulation framework is typically used)13, this “target population-based study protocol” enables us to assess and try to mitigate potential biases at the outset of the study.
The primary data source for this study is the ‘Education and Child Health Insights from Linked Data’ (ECHILD) dataset14. ECHILD is a whole population-based cohort of children and young people in England comprised from linked administrative hospital and school/social care records, Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) and the National Pupil Database (NPD), respectively. HES contains records of all national health service (NHS)-funded hospital activity in England including inpatient admissions, outpatient activity and accident and emergency attendances. Approximately 97% of births in England are captured in HES admission records (the child's “birth record”)15, with the majority linkable to their mother’s delivery record using a mixture of deterministic and probabilistic methods applied to non-disclosive variables available in both sets of records16. The NPD contains enrolment data from termly school censuses, including pupil and school characteristics, attainment at the key stages, absences, exclusions, and information from some children’s social services17. There is no common pseudonymised identifier across individuals in HES and NPD, therefore records are linked by NHS Digital using deterministic linking algorithms based on name, date of birth, sex and postcode14. To ECHILD, we will link opensource school characteristic data published by the Department for Education and geographical boundary data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS)18–21. Details of each dataset that will be used in this study is provided in Table 1.
Our cohort will be defined as singleton children with MCAs born in NHS-funded hospitals between 1 September 2003 and 31 August 2012 and alive at entry into school (Reception – age four). Children will be excluded if: their NHS record does not link to NPD (likely indicating they did not attend state-funded school in England); or they do not appear in any NPD school census in reception, year one and/or year two (corresponding to ages four to six at entry; see Figure 1). See the summary protocol in Table 2 for details on the target population-based study protocol and how it is emulated in this study.
Major congenital anomalies. MCAs will be defined by the presence of specified International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision (ICD-10) diagnostic codes as any diagnosis (primary/secondary) during any hospital admission before first birthday. The ICD codes, based on the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT) guidelines22, are shown in Table 3. Our analyses will firstly focus on the whole population of children with MCA, followed by system-specific anomaly subgroups (chromosomal, cardiac, nervous system, digestive system). Infants with more than one MCA can belong in more than one subgroup but are only counted once in the “any MCA” group.
ICD-10 codes* | |
---|---|
Any MCA | Include: Q-chapter, D215, D821, D1810**, P350, P351, P371 Exclude: Q0461**, Q0782**, Q101, Q102, Q103, Q105, Q135, Q170, Q171, Q172, Q173, Q179, Q174, Q180, Q181, Q182, Q184, Q185, Q186, Q187, Q1880**, Q189, Q2111, Q250 if gestational age <37 weeks, Q2541, Q256 if gestational age <37 weeks, Q261, Q270, Q314, Q320, Q331, Q381, Q382, Q3850**, Q400, Q4021**, Q430, Q4320**, Q4381**, Q4382**, Q523, Q525, Q527, Q53, Q5520**, Q5521**, Q610, Q627, Q633, Q653-Q656, Q662-Q669, Q670-Q678, Q680, Q6821**, Q683-Q685, Q6810**, Q7400**, Q752, Q753, Q760, Q7643, Q765, Q7660**, Q7662**, Q7671**, Q825, Q8280**, Q833, Q845, Q899 |
MCA subgroup | |
Nervous system | Include: Q00, Q01, Q02, Q03, Q04, Q05, Q06, Q07 Exclude: Q0461**, Q0782** |
Cardiac | Include: Q20-Q26 Exclude: Q2111, Q250 if gestational age <37 weeks, Q2541, Q256 if gestational age <37 weeks, Q261 |
Digestive system | Include: Q38-Q45, Q790 Exclude: Q381, Q382, Q3850**, Q400, Q401, Q4021, Q430, Q4320**, Q4381, Q4382** |
Chromosomal | Include: Q90-Q93, Q96-Q99 Exclude: Q936 |
*excludes minor congenital anomalies, which are described as anomalies with “lesser medical, functional or cosmetic consequences” (see Section 3.2, EUROCAT);22 **unable to include/exclude in this study because code is too specific for HES coding
Local authority. LA will be defined by the middle layer super output area 2011 (MSOA11) of each child’s residential address reported in the pupil-level school censuses (NPD) at entry into school and mapped to one of the 152 LAs in England as defined in 2021. We will use residential MSOA11 rather than school MSOA11 because it is the LA where the pupil lives that is responsible for securing provision and providing top up funding associated with SEN provision23. We will use 2021 LA classifications to ensure geographical consistency in cases of LA mergers and boundary redrawing.
Outcome: SEN provision. Our study outcome is recording of SEN provision for each pupil during Reception, year one and year two (i.e. the first three years of primary school, ages four to six at entry), categorised as: (i) a binary variable (any versus no recorded SEN provision); (ii) a three-category ordinal variable (EHCP, SEN support, no recorded SEN provision). We will create these outcomes using the variable “SEN provision” from NPD school censuses. An EHCP is defined as at least one recording of an EHCP or statement of SEN during reception, year one or two. SEN support is defined as at least one record of SEN support, school action or school action plus during Reception, year one and two, but no EHCP at any point during this time. No SEN provision is defined by the value “no SEN” for all available school censuses across Reception, year one and two.
For succinctness, we use the term “SEN provision” to refer to the outcome in this protocol; however, a record of SEN provision in the educational data does not necessarily indicate that SEN provision was received.
Explanatory factors. Table 4 outlines the variables we will consider as explanatory factors for variation in SEN provision selected a priori as likely to be associated with the allocation of SEN provision2.
Variable name | Definition | Dataset(s) |
---|---|---|
Individual | ||
Year of birth | Year of child’s birth (in academic years – 1 September to 31 August) | HES APC (birth record) |
Month of birth | Month of child’s birth | HES APC (birth record) |
Maternal age | Maternal age at delivery | HES APC (birth record enhanced from maternal delivery record*) |
Child’s gender | Child’s parent/self-reported gender in first appearance in school census (female or male) | NPD school censuses (pupil level) |
IDACI | IDACI quintile of child’s residential address in first appearance in school census | NPD school censuses (pupil level) |
Free school meals | Entitlement to free school meals (yes or no) in first appearance in school census | NPD school censuses (pupil level) |
Ethnic group | Ethnicity of the pupil based on most recent recorded ethnicity in the NPD | NPD school censuses (pupil level) |
Child Protection Plan | Child has ever been subject to a child protection plan (yes or no) at 31 August before school entry | NPD children in need census |
Hospital presentations | Combined number of hospital admissions and A&E attendances after discharge from birth admission to 31 August before school entry | HES APC, HES A&E |
EYFSP | EYFSP overall standardised score, measured ages 3 to 5 years | NPD EYFSP dataset |
School | ||
School governance | Type of school governance, including sponsor led academy, converter academy, maintained schools and free schools | GIAS |
School type | Type of school attended by child (special school, alternative provision or mainstream school) | GIAS |
Local authority | ||
Sponsored academies % | Proportion of the pupil population within the LA that are attending sponsored academies | GIAS |
Converter academies % | Proportion of the pupil population the LA that are attending converter academies | GIAS |
Special school % | Proportion of the pupil population within the LA that are attending special schools | GIAS |
Alternative provision % | Proportion of the pupil population within the LA that are attending alternative provision or pupil referral units | GIAS |
Children with protection plans % | Proportion of the pupil population within the LA that are subject to a child protection plan | NPD children in need census |
LA size | The size of the pupil population | NPD school censuses (pupil level) |
LA IDACI | The modal IDACI quintile of children in the LA in state schools based on their home address | NPD school censuses (pupil level) |
Free school meals % | The proportion of within the LA that are eligible for free school meals | |
LA spending | LA spending on education | LA and school finance dataset |
*Linkage between birth and delivery records occurred prior to ECHILD linkage; A&E = accident and emergency; APC = admitted patient care; EYFSP = Early years foundation stage profile; HES = hospital episode statistics; IDACI = Income deprivation affecting children index; LA = local authority; NPD = national pupil database
The distribution of key individual, school and LA characteristics including missing data by SEN provision will be described in numbers and percentages. The association between covariates and the probability of missingness in at least one study variable will be explored using univariable logistic regression. These findings will be used to decide how to treat missing data in this study.
To explore geographical variation in recorded SEN provision for children with MCA at the LA level we will use multi-level logistic (for the binary outcome) and ordinal logistic (for the three-category outcome) regression models for child-specific SEN provision. The Hausman specification test will be used to determine whether a mixed effects or random effects model is suitable. The model has two levels to reflect the clustering of children within LA. Beginning with an empty model with one random or fixed intercept to capture the similarities in log-odds within each LA, we will add individual-level and LA-level variables as detailed in Table 3. We will then add school characteristics at the individual level of the model. We will report the estimated intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) at each stage of the modelling, signifying the percentage of variation in (log) odds of SEN provision that is due to unaccounted differences between LAs. By adding first individual- and then LA-specific variables (with and without school variables), this percentage should reduce if these variables can explain part of the variation in addition to those already included. Given the reported differences in the experiences of girls and boys in school and hospital settings24, we will replicate this analysis stratified by child’s gender (as defined in Table 4).
A further extension of the empty model will consider modelling sudden shifts in the propensity for pupils to receive SEN provision, such as the period of SEN reforms after Children and Families Act 2014 or the academisation of schools25,26. We will firstly examine observed patterns of SEN provision amongst children in our cohort to determine whether to proceed with this step. An example of such model, showing the use of an academic year variable to capture time before and after 2014/15 (the “SEN reform” variable), is specified below. Here, the SEN reform takes the value “0” if year one attendance occurred during the pre-reform period (i.e. children born before 31 August 2009 who entered primary school before 1 September 2014) or “1” if year one attendance occurred during the post-reform period (i.e. children born after 1 September 2009). Adding this variable to the multi-level model that only includes calendar time will identify if there are any step changes associated with the SEN reforms; adding their interaction (parametrised as differential slopes before and after 2014/15) will allow for time trends in provision to change after the reform. To see whether pre- and post-reform trends differ by LA, we can allow the coefficients for calendar time during the pre- and post-reform period to vary by LA (i.e. the model will have both a random intercept for the variation in pre-reform LA provision and random slopes for both pre- and post-reform periods).
Analyses will be conducted in the Office for National Statistics Secure Research Service using Stata 17 (with R a suggested opensource alternative).
Model specification (example). To allow for a piece-wise linear shape (with change of slopes for school year one in 2014/15, starting from school year one in 2008/09) of the average relationship between academic year and the outcome (expressed on the logit scale), we will parametrise the model as follows:
Where: i is a pupil clustered within LA j, Yij = 1 denotes recorded SEN provision for individual i and Yij = 0 denotes no recorded SEN provision, β0 = the mean (across LAs) intercept when school year one is equal to 2008/09; t = academic year; β1 = the average slope from 2008/09 to 2013/14; β2 = the average slope after 2013/14, u0j = the random effect component of the intercept for LA j, and (X1ij,…,XKij) represent K covariates for individual i in LA j.
Permissions to use linked, de-identified data from Hospital Episode Statistics and the National Public Database were granted by DfE (DR200604.02B) and NHS Digital (DARS-NIC-381972-Q5F0V-v0.5). Ethical approval for the ECHILD project was granted by the National Research Ethics Service (17/LO/1494), NHS Health Research Authority Research Ethics Committee (20/EE/0180) and UCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health’s Joint Research and Development Office (20PE06/20PE16).
We gratefully acknowledge all children and families whose de-identified data are used in this research. We would like to acknowledge the contribution of the wider HOPE study team to this work: Sarah Barnes, Kate Boddy, Kristine Black-Hawkins, Lorraine Dearden, Tamsin Ford, Katie Harron, Lucy Karwatowska, Matthew Lilliman, Stuart Logan, Jacob Matthews, Jugnoo Rahi, Jennifer Saxton, Antony Stone and Isaac Winterburn. We thank Maria Peppa for data curation of the major congenital anomaly cohort, and Ruth Blackburn and Matthew Jay for ECHILD Database support.
Is the rationale for, and objectives of, the study clearly described?
Yes
Is the study design appropriate for the research question?
Yes
Are sufficient details of the methods provided to allow replication by others?
Yes
Are the datasets clearly presented in a useable and accessible format?
Yes
Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed.
Reviewer Expertise: Special education, teacher workforce, secondary data analysis
Is the rationale for, and objectives of, the study clearly described?
Yes
Is the study design appropriate for the research question?
Yes
Are sufficient details of the methods provided to allow replication by others?
Yes
Are the datasets clearly presented in a useable and accessible format?
Yes
Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed.
Reviewer Expertise: Special and Inclusive Education
Alongside their report, reviewers assign a status to the article:
Invited Reviewers | ||
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1 | 2 | |
Version 1 05 Oct 23 |
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